I reference the ridiculous murder in Death on the Nile here. It is one of the easiest to prevent since all anyone has to do is not leave the murderer alone when he is supposedly shot (the reason for leaving him alone isn't plausible--one of the other passengers should have gone for the doctor, not taken the accomplice TO the doctor).
Murder in Mesopotamia is less easy to prevent. Although the particular murder in the book is easily prevented (I don't think anyone should be sticking their head through the bars of windows, anyway), the murderer is fairly remorseless. He would likely try again and succeed.
The question here is, Could the reason for the murder be prevented?
I generally ignore motive since murderous intent is (1) not other people's fault; (2) not necessarily based on anything substantial enough to merit intervention, no matter what "crime is the fault of society" folks try to preach. Dorothy Sayers argues in multiple places that figuring out HOW is far more important than WHY since there are too many WHYs: the murderer could be anyone!
However, in both above books, a "stolen" lover and an affair are the direct motivations. Could my intervention detectives stop the events that set everything into motion?
Christie makes clear with Death on the Nile that the instigator is Simon, not Jacqueline or even Linnet. Although Poirot points out to Linnet that she took her friend's lover, he does so to stop her prevaricating. He still pities her (Branagh's version also shows Linnet in a reasonably positive light).The problem is Simon who, like Willoughby from Sense & Sensibility, wants love and money. Jacqueline, with a more sensitive conscience, goes along to prevent him messing up the matter.
I think my prevention detectives could stop the ill-fated marriage between Linnet and Simon. They could point out Simon's avaricious nature using bank records and testimonials (Linnet is fairly hard-headed). They could put pressure on Jacqueline to abandon the plan. They could excoriate Simon, who wouldn't care to see himself as dishonorable. All the parties involved are human enough to be stopped.
Murder in Mesopotamia would be more difficult but at least one member of the party, Richard Carey, feels guilty enough about the affair to potentially be stopped.
Here is where motive gets messy, though. Even if the affair was prevented, it is possible that the husband, Dr. Leidner, would still kill his wife. Her betrayal is less physical and more emotional. It isn't that she is having sex with Carey; it is that she has fallen in love with him.
The prevention investigators would have their job cut out for them.
I have always been impressed that Agatha Christie, whose first husband left her to marry another woman, was able not only to extend compassion to those embroiled in love affairs but to also see them as differing from each other considerably.
Her mysteries always come back to character.
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